Foreign central bank forecasting and watching

(Warning, complex economics below)

On all charts, pay particular attention to the direction and trend of the rate of changes line(s).


Most of World Bank of Japan European Central Bank Bank of England People's Bank of China U.S. Federal Reserve World velocity Global central bank reserves U.S. Fed watch page Interbank trust Credit multipliers




Most of world central banks





Short term, annual change rates



Long term, annual change rates



See money and lags for more data. It applies to the US Federal Reserve but the lag concept applies to all central banks, they just differ on the size of the lags.


Same data as above but in actual dollars for the shorter term and longer term.






Bank of Japan

Weekly & 'hot' money

Source
As of mid 2006, 100 million yen is very roughly equal to .865 million US dollars.
Since the minus 100,000 figure on the left scale is in units of 100 million yen, each 100,000 figure equals about 86.5 billion dollars.



Short term, annual change rates

boj_money_short
Source


Long term, annual change rates

boj_money

base

boj_money_simple

Source




Deflation, debt, monetary base & lags since 1990 in Japan



















An interesting correlation between the Yen and the Nikkei


Yen & Nikkei, 1985-2005







European Central Bank (ECB)


Weekly & 'hot' money, short term

ecb_weekly

Weekly & 'hot' money, long term


Click here for a general high level picture of ECB Open Market Operations, and here for the main ECB OMO definitions and background page.



Short term, annual change rates


Long term, annual change rates


Source



See money and lags for more data. It applies to the US Federal Reserve but the lag concept applies to all central banks, they just differ on the size of the lags.

ECB gold buying & selling, short term



ECB gold buying & selling, long term

Source, weekly source



ECB balance sheet



Click here for a picture of ECB debt in the Euro area.








Bank of England




Short term, annual change rates


Long term, annual change rates

Source







People's Bank of China




Short term, annual change rates


Long term, annual change rates


Foreign exchange reserves


Velocity proxy

Source



U.S. Federal Reserve





Short term, annual change rates

Source


Long term, annual change rates

Source

See money and lags for more data. It applies to the US Federal Reserve but the lag concept applies to all central banks, they just differ on the size of the lags.



Credit & debt multipliers



c1


c2


c3


c4


c4a



Interbank trust

The charts below show the differences between the 3 and 12 months LIBOR (London Interbank rate) and EONIA (European [Interbank] Overnight Index Average) rates. The size of the gap (the black line) and its trend are a direct measure of how much various banks trust or distrust each other, and indirectly a measure of crisis or calm.



3 month data



1 year data

Eonia only, raw







How fast is money moving through most of the world?

The actual money of money and credit being created is only part of the picture. Velocity must also be factored in since it affects the amount of total money in an economic system. Velocity is low in a depression and high in a hyperinflation.

Definition







Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER)

These charts show where the reserves of the various central banks of the world are held, and are useful in determining longer term trends and trend changes. Note that data is only issued and published quarterly, and that the data only covers about 50-60% of the world's central banks (China is not included for example).













Note: "unallocated" in this context means that the central banks have not reported where the full amount of their reserves are located.
As of mid 2006, about 33% of their total reserves is secret and undisclosed.






Source






Balance sheet comparisons