Daily charts
(Page not always updated immediately after data releases)
TIO & temp repo and the S&P 500 (stock market direction)
Same chart, close up
TIOs only, close up
Note: the "accept/submit" lines represent the ratio of how much money was offered by both the Fed and Treasury against how much was actually accepted or bought by the auction participants. In our opinion and simplistically, the higher the number, the more confident the participants are that the stock market can and will go up significantly.
Also note that the extended (dotted) lines on the chart represent the TIO and TOMO picture a few days into the future and are *not* prediction. They simply represent what would happen if there were no additional TIOs or TOMOs.
11/7/2007: Note that TIOs have become significantly less reliable as a US stock market bullish signal since 2nd quarter 2007, and lately (roughly mid July) have had a higher correlation with bearish effects. Whether this is a signal of a change in stance of the 22 primary dealers or not, it is an unmistakable change.
Our TIO article
Fed TOMO site
Treasury TIO site
An example of TIO/TOMO signals
Conjectures on TIO/TOMO 2005 activities
TIO/TOMO 2006 activities, with arrows showing TIO operations
External TOMO recap - another view of just TOMO data ("Slosh report")
Sep 2006
Aug 2006
Jul 2006
Jun 2006
May 2006
Apr 2006
2006 & 2007 TIO operations vs. the S&P 500
| Start |
Offered |
Accepted |
S&P close on prior day |
End |
Peak balance |
S&P close on peak day |
Gain/loss |
Gain/loss plus** |
| 1/13/2006 |
$34.0 |
$14.0 |
1286.06 |
1/27/2006 |
$26.9 |
1285.19 |
-0.87 |
4.17 |
| 3/17/2006 |
$25.50 |
$8.0 |
1305.33 |
3/27/2006 |
$20.0 |
1301.61 |
-3.72 |
7.66 |
| 4/17/2006 |
$15.0 |
$6.0 |
1285.33 |
5/5/2006 |
$72.8 |
1325.76 |
40.43 |
11.94 |
| 6/14/2006 |
$16.0 |
$16.0 |
1230.04 |
6/22/2006 |
$43.7 |
1245.6 |
15.56 |
45.05 |
| 7/26/2006 |
$18.40 |
$5.0 |
1268.88 |
7/31/2006 |
$10.5 |
1276.66 |
7.78 |
2.55 |
| 8/16/2006 |
$16.8 |
$6.5 |
1285.58 |
8/22/2006 |
$14.5 |
1298.82 |
13.24 |
25.16 |
| 9/14/2006 |
$16.0 |
$16.0 |
1316.28 |
9/28/2006 |
$63.8 |
1338.88 |
22.60 |
37.27 |
| 10/18/2006 |
$6.0 |
$6.0 |
1364.05 |
10/31/2006 |
$43.5 |
1377.94 |
13.89 |
16.77 |
| 11/7/2006 |
$5.5 |
$5.5 |
1379.28 |
11/9/2006 |
$31.0 |
1380.9 |
1.62 |
21.55 |
| 12/14/2006 |
$13.0 |
$13.0 |
1413.21 |
12/21/2006 |
$46.5 |
1418.3 |
5.09 |
11.61 |
| 1/12/2007 |
$6.0 |
$6.0 |
1423.82 |
2/2/2007 |
$62.0 |
1448.39 |
24.57 |
31.14 |
| 3/13/2007 |
-- |
-- |
1378.xx |
3/22/2007 |
$35.5 |
1436.xx |
58.xx |
62.xx |
| 4/18/2007 |
-- |
-- |
1472.xx |
5/9/2007 |
$80.5 |
1516.xx |
24.xx |
31.xx |
| 6/15/2007 |
$16.0 |
$16.0 |
1522.xx |
6/?/2007 |
$? |
? |
? |
? |
Note: all TIO dollar amounts are in billions.
** Gain/loss plus shows the gain 7-10 days after the TIO peak, to allow and account for the "pump priming" effects.
LBMA lease rates
