As of 7/2/2012, the CPI adjusted 2000 dollar is worth 73.23¢, and the CPPIs adjusted dollar is worth 43.91¢.
Look out below...5/8/2011
Citi Surprise Index, S&P 500, gold
Bernanke Just Lied to You (ZH)
Week of 'truth'...12/4/2011
Best guess, a 'solution' in the Euro zone will come out that will apparently calm things down, but do nothing to actually solve the various long term situations - more "kicking the can down the road" to allow the elites, especially including the IMF behind the scenes, to continue their power & control games. We're still hedged on precious metals but nowhere near as much as a few weeks ago, for what its worth. Probable up week in U.S. stocks, at least through Thursday. We also believe the next big turn (likely down, but we'll wait for the market to tell us) won't truly start until after January 1st - ideal turn date, the 9th.
New chart, no one else seems to track it - Household energy
Fed may give loans to IMF to help euro zone
Probable fairly calm week ahead, slightly down expected...11/20/2011
S&P 500 triangle broken to downside, resistance now roughly around 1240 (~1260 also valid), next support level roughly around 1165. Gold support around $1680, we're still hedged from the $1840 area.
New chart, no one else seems to track it - Water, sewer and trash collection costs
Update 11/22/2011 - tracking with our comment from the 18th: IMF Revamps Credit Lines to Lure Nations
Lots of our signals are still fighting each other, nothing clear or high percentage. Options expiration this week, triangle formation on the S&P 500, probable slightly down week.
Due to Federal holiday last Friday, charts will be updated by Monday 6:30 PM ET.
Update 11/15/2011 - rare political piece: How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love the OWS Protests (Matt Taibbi)
Likely bounce in the S&P tomorrow, options expiration. Triangle formation still active.
Update 11/18/2011 - Early, but far from unexpected... and looks like it was just a 'test' or trial balloon. “A proposal that the IMF could call on the ECB to lend it money so it can finance bailouts for euro zone governments threatened with insolvency is gaining traction and if all parties agree, a deal could be announced at the Dec 9th European Union summit, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.”
Strong bearish bias, probably early...11/6/2011
US total money supply growing around 3%, before adjustment for debt deflation or velocity.
World money supply, same growth rate of around 3%, same issue with velocity.
S&P 500 trend lines
The Fed is also likely looking for an excuse to fire up "QE3", and a weak stock market is a big one. Our next major ideal turn date is around January 10th, range of Jan 5-17th..
Earnings Warning Ratio Highest In a Decade
Update 11/9/2011 - New chart on Weimar Germany estimated velocity changes, showing how hugely variable it likely was
U.S. Government Confirms Link Between Earthquakes and Hydraulic Fracturing
Update 11/10/2011 5:18 PM ET - Expect something substantial in Treasuries within the week, Primary Dealers are holding bunches more recently - can't tell yet whether it was a buy or sell of $200B+.
Update 11/11/2011 - NO WEEKLY UPDATES TODAY, Federal holiday.
Weekly update will occur by 6:00 PM ET on Monday.
We expect volatility to be a much bigger factor than average for the next few years, at least until the ultimate inflationary blowoff in hard assets.
S&P blew through our resistance like sliced butter, no strong feelings otherwise and we still think the bull trap possibilities are there. Next turn point ideal date Nov. 22, probably bullish. EU ESM treaty is not our favorite item (extreme sarcasm).
Update 10/31/2011 4:34 PM ET - Our best guess, chances over 50% but under 75% for another down day tomorrow for US stocks.
Update 11/1/2011 - wow on the down day in progress... and we did go mildly short overnight. We remain hedged on our hard asset physical positions. Took profits on 1/3 of the position at approx. S&P 1220.
Update 11/2/2011 - 9:50 AM ET, took profits on another 1/3 of the S&P short position, waiting for short term trend line break to exit the rest - if and when.
Best guess, the S&P 500 breakout on Friday satifies the turn signal but since we're a bit under the weather, our confidence isn't high. Gold options expiration Wednesday.
Update 10/25/2011 - gold & silver option expiration tomorrow. We're still in relative disinflation so we remain hedged on our PMs. Increases in POMOs, Primary Dealer positions and Other Fed Assets sure seem to be supporting the U.S. stock markets well.
Rioting Across America - The Great Depression (1930s)
We've adjusted the nearby ideal date turn point forward from the 18th to the 24th, too many conditions and signals have changed.
CPI expectations - 3.3%, CPPI - 8.4%. We still believe S&P key resistance is 1250-1260, and are quite wary of bull traps. Options expirations week. Still carrying gold & silver hedges.
OWS-wise and similar, keep in mind that the core of the American revolution numbered less than a few hundred. About 45% of the colonists supported them, with only about 20% remaining loyal to Britain.
Update 10/18/2011 - Pain & misery index against gold
Update 10/20/2011 - Four new charts near the bottom of our Weimar charts page, showing that hyperinflation does *not* happen overnight as some less than fully educated blogs have been stating.
More of the same...10/9/2011
We're not expecting anything other than basic trend continuations this coming week, although the Occupy Wall Street movement sure is a bright spot... if for no other reason that some Americans are actually *doing* something about it. We were out at one on Saturday and most participants were more well informed on many of the real issues than we thought, and were maintaining decent focus on "banksters". Beware any MSM or vested interest type blogger criticism, and do be aware of "plant" possibilities (remember the Pueblo, etc.)... the protests are quite real and on target, albeit imperfect... and of course there are always a few at protests that are *special* (in best SNL Church Lady voice, as in "Isn't that special") that somehow receive excess attention.
Update 10/12/2011 - Make up your own mind: Gold price suppression purposes and proofs (GATA)
The first Operation Twist
Update 10/13/2011 - What Is the Message From #OccupyWallStreet? (HT - Jesse at http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/ )
Small alert, update - "Marketable securities held in custody for foreign official and international accounts" on the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report have fallen for 7 weeks in a row. The total is down about $82 billion.
Still the roller coaster...10/2/2011
Next turn points: larger than normal one mid to late November, with a close to normal one in mid/late October, quite large one in early January too. Ideal dates - Oct. 18 and November 17. Still expecting S&P500 at 1025 and lower before 1300.
Gold Fibonacci+ points since the bottom at 252, for what its worth:
Food for thought:
EURECA project Hellenic Recovery Fund - a solution for Greece and Europe (snip of report from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.)
1. Bundle Greek state assets worth EUR 125 bn in a central trustee organization (holding company)
2. Sell entire holding company to European Union for EUR 125 bn
3. Allow Greek state to use proceeds to repurchase bonds from ECB and EFSF
4. In so doing, reduce Greek debt from 145% to 88% of GDP
5. Reduce ECB's and taxpayers' exposure to Greek debt to zero
6. Invest EUR 20 bn in restructuring assets to maximize value of privatization (plus EUR 40-60 bn)
7. Add 8% GDP stimulus to Greek economy as side-effect of restructuring program
8. Drive growth swing from -5% to +5%, producing additional tax revenue equivalent to 4% of GDP
9. Cut interest burden by more than 50% thanks to debt reduction and rating improvements
10. Combine (8) and (9) to enable debt repayment worth 1% of GDP p.a., leading to a debt ratio that is clearly within the 60% debt ceiling of the Maastricht criteria.
11. Payout of any surplus to Greece in 2025 to fund additional debt reduction -Any shortfall should be covered by Greece provided the required sum does not exceed 30% of GDP (i.e. no more than EUR 150 bn by 2025/26)
12. Side-effect 1: CDS spreads will collapse, causing speculators to incur losses and preventing attacks on Ireland, Portugal and Spain
13. Side-effect 2: 100% privatization of Greek public sector will stamp out corruption and foster long-term growth and investment
14. Side-effect 3: Greek banks holding Greek bonds will see value gain of EUR 30 bn, restoring solvency of banking system and reducing collateral risk for ECB by 95%, thereby ending Greece 's credit supply crisis
15. Safe non-default repurchasing option on Greek bonds could also be implemented as an option
Deflation In Japan and its Chances in the US
Update 10/4/2011 - Marc Faber's latest views, we like it - especially about China
Update 10/6/2011 - the saga of the problems with BofA's web site continue... could it be "excessive withdrawals"?
Small alert - "Marketable securities held in custody for foreign official and international accounts" on the Fed's weekly H.8 report have fallen for 6 weeks in a row. The total is down about $62 billion.
Update 10/8/2011 - "How did the Euro banks get so levered up? The London Banker explains it well:
A primary fallacy of the Basel Accord is that OECD government debt is risk free and requires no bank reserves. Better yet, the banks can count the government debt they hold as Tier 1 capital, reserving against other debt assets. The Basel Accords assume all OECD government debt is a cash proxy, being liquid in all market conditions…
Roughly, the risk weights of the main asset classes under Basel I were:
– zero for Zone A (EEA and OECD) government debt of all maturities and Zone B (non-OECD) government debt of less than one year;
– 20 percent for Zone A inter-bank obligations and public sector entity debt (e.g. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, et al.);
– 50 percent for fully secured mortgage debt;
– 100 percent for all corporate debt…
With Basel II they could reduce capital even further by writing each other a daisy chain of credit default swaps for all categories of exposure…
OECD government debt is zero risk weighted and accounts for a disproportionate bulk of Tier 1 capital of major banks. A default by any EEA or OECD government will force banks and central banks to recognise that government debt has inherent risk like all other debt. This would force recognition of a positive risk weighting, and bring into question the assumption that government debt can be counted as a cash-proxy in Tier 1 reserves. The illiquidity of impaired or defaulted government debt would undermine its role as a Tier 1 reserve asset in bank capital models…
If any OECD state were to default there would be very serious implications:
– The Basel Accord zero risk weight of government debt would be proved fanciful;
– The assumption of government debt as a liquid asset suitable for bank Tier 1 reserves to meet unanticipated and sudden cash demands will become unsustainable;
– Banks would be forced to recapitalise at much higher levels, forcing even sharper deleveraging and contraction of lending;
– Governments would lose the captive, uncritical investor base they have relied on to finance excess public expenditure for the past 30 years;
– Central banks could be forced to suddenly monetise even more government debt if required to meet the cash demands of a run on their undercapitalised banks.:
Rant: SCREW mark-to-market, we vote for mark to reality! Assuming that the market is correct is quite a bit less than wise.
Quite a bit larger and quicker reaction on our predicted turn date than what we expected, but momentum sure can be much stronger on the downside than the upside. Gold options expiration on Tuesday, and we do expect at least a small bounce by Friday. We're at least at a 2 in 3 that the bottom is *not* in yet on PMs... and that plus a few dollars will get you a cup of coffee. Note also that dollar strength frequently means stock weakness. Next turn date best guess and ideally on October 19th, and a bigger one in roughly mid November.
Repeating, total money supply growth getting close to negative, and probably negative already if velocity is taken into account.
Good trading and investing and luck to all.
Update 9/26/2011 - Truly massive spike down in gold to $1532 (silver to $26.58) and a bounce back up to ~$1640 overnight, probably too soon for a temp bottom but all the signs are there. Too much volatility for our trading taste.
For what its worth, we expect daily moves to be at least ± $250 before the eventual peak.
Update 9/27/2011 - Partial quote:
"On the other hand, I'm generally optimistic for the future. There are only two causes for optimism. First, smart individuals all over the world continue, as individuals, to produce more than they consume and try to save the difference. That will build capital, which is of critical importance. ... Second, expanding and compounding technology will increase the standard of living. Remember that there are more scientists and engineers alive today than have lived in all previous history combined. Those two factors countervail the government stupidity around us. Whether they will be overwhelmed and washed away by a tsunami of statism and collectivism, I don't know."
-- Doug Casey, Source
Update 9/30/2011 - Testimony of Marriner Eccles to the Committee on the Investigation of Economic Problems in 1933
No significant changes in view since last week...9/18/2011
... although our ideal turn date is this week and could easily be related to the central bank coordinated action last Friday. We await more specific details on sizes of swaps, etc. Note that it is legal and the Fed already has the power to buy foreign bonds and similar.
Recap - turn signal around mid/late September (ideal date 19th), best guess gold support around 1680-1720 and S&P 500 below 1000 or very close (H&S pointing at 1025). Strong techical gold support at about 1650 too (diamond formation late Aug./early Sept.), and lots of stops will be there so 1600 or so, even 1550, is not out of the question. Total money supply growth getting close to negative, and probably negative already if velocity is taken into account. We expect official August CPI-U to come in between 2.4% and 2.8%, and CPPI no lower than about 7.5%.
We've been in another 'official' recession for a few months, and we also doubt that it will be called one since it will likely not last 2 quarters. Of course, on a real basis we've been in a severe recession for years, and we wouldn't argue with anyone who wants to call it a depression. It's also stagflation on steroids.
Another choppy and very likely down week ahead, primarily due to long term (predicted) Euro area stability issues. Chances are not small for a mini-crash.
Update 9/14/2011 - thoughts about the longer term: Resort to SDRs for next bailouts will spur rush to gold, Rickards says
Update 9/15/2011 - index options expiration today.
We blew it on our CPI-U estimate, it came in around 3.3%. CPPI at 8.67%.
On the lighter side: Principles of economics, translated
Perception management (wikipedia)
World Central Banks Announce Global Dollar Shortfall Funding Resolution(ZH)
We expect (best guess wise) gold to be in a very broad trading range for months, bounded by about $2,000 on the high side and $1,650-1,750 on the low side. The Euro needs to catch up a bit, and QE3 or equivalent probably needs to happen before a break about $2,000. The US dollar has been in a trading range between 73 and 76 or so for quite a few months.
In the land of horse puckey, some are expressing doubt about real CPI and inflation being higher than reported for many years, per ShadowStats and our and others work. We hope to produce an article debunking it soon, but in the meantime just talk to anyone living on Social Security for a while and ask them if they have anywhere vaguely near the same standard of living as a few years or decades ago. After all, it is called the Consumer Price Index... and sometimes we'd prefer CONsumer Price Index. /rant off
Update 9/5/2011 - China knows about gold price suppression, and U.S. knows China knows
Still looking at a break down before 1250 on the S&P, and on balance think that gold has further to drop. See recent volatility drop too
So many more tea leaves to read these days...
Update 8/30/2011 - Yes, We Can Do Stimulus Without Adding Debt. Here’s How. (Robert Shiller)
Ups and downs - the name of the game in stocks, and for weeks now. A clean break above S&P 1250 will change our intermediate term outlook away from bearish - we expect a break below 1000.
M3 annual growth at about 7%
Nice & simple money supply charts:
M1, M2, M3(b)
Total credit, federal debt, TMS
Update 8/25/2011 - best guess, meaningful gold support around $1650.
Update 8/26/2011 - nothing significant in the QE2 area from Ben. Source
Broad trading range...8/14/2011
No strong turn signals until mid/late September (ideal date 19th), best guess gold support around 1680-1720(?). Medium volatility. Lows probably not in on stocks.
Update 8/16/2011 - Just to put a foot back into the "game" of best guesses of the eventual value of gold & silver - $6666 on gold and $333 for silver, but we'll put other numbers out there when gold is above $3200 and silver is above $130, our original minimum targets. And yes, the numbers are somewhat whimsical.
Update 8/19/2011 - options expiration today
Touchy, intervention expected...8/7/2011
Fed meeting Tuesday, QE3 hints?
Eurodollar component and algorithm of M3 adjusted upwards over the last few weeks.
Congress hasn't passed the debt ceiling legislation, markets still worried. Good chance that the U.S. gets down graded by S&P or Moody's, dollar probably doing counter move.
Yes, we're in a recession.
Gold vs. currencies...7/24/2011
Corrected chart of gold prices in various currencies since 2002
New chart of gold prices in other secondary currencies since 2002
Update 7/26/2011 - We expect to be out of all markets no later than the morning of August 2nd, even though we feel that the deficit limit will be raised - the risk/reward is too high.
Update 7/27/2011 12:06 AM - exited all precious metals longs.
We expect the S&P 500 to have a level to down week, and precious metals a level to up week - basically trading ranges... and assuming no unexpected agreement on the U.S. debt ceiling and deficit spending.
Program trading & HFT back down below 80% as of week ending 7/1. On an intermediate view, the S&P 500 etc, have been in a very broad trading range since the beginning of 2011, same with gold but only since mid April - and gold is quite close to another all time high.
NB - options expiration week for stocks.
Minor turn signals around the 17th, a larger one between 7/27 and 8/12, with an ideal date of August 9th.
Update 7/12/2011 - From the Fed: “Some participants noted that if economic growth remained too slow to make satisfactory progress toward reducing the unemployment rate and if inflation returned to relatively low levels after the effects of recent transitory shocks dissipated, it would be appropriate to provide additional monetary policy accommodation.”
Our estimate of program trading including HFT was well over 90% of total volume for week ending 6/24. May you be very nimble.
Update 7/4/2011 - in tinfoil hat mode and also in order to document some of our very long term and very out there expectations and predictions, we expect some [i]very[/i] extraordinary "events" etc. over the next 3-12 years - major historical events ranking up there with the most major events and discoveries in all of human history.
Sideways, choppy and down week likely ahead...6/26/2011
More EONIA, same, back to 1999
Euro (Interbank) Overnight Index Average...6/19/2011
EONIA 3 month chart here, 12 month here.
No solutions evident in Greece and the rest of Euro area, for many months.
Still short the S&P 500... still on alert for bounces or reversals. Looking at a dollar long...
Update 6/20/2011 - 1:25 PM, ET - out of 1/2 of our S&P shorts.
The Emerging New Monetarism: Gold Convertibility To Save The Euro
Update 6/21/2011 - 7:25 AM, ET - out of 1/2 of all S&P shorts.
Excellent comments on the problems with 'Modern Monetary Theory' (MMT), especially the conclusions
Update 6/23/2011 - Allied Irish Bank has 'defaulted' says derivatives body
Update 6/24/2011 - US to tap Strategic Petroleum Reserve to drive gas prices down (*yawn*)
It's far from unlikely that we'll see a bounce or start of a bounce this week in U.S. stock markets (options expiration), same with a drop in precious metals. A silver short is tempting but the risk/reward isn't good enough. We're still short the S&P, but ready to turn on a dime.
The Economic Rebound: It Isn’t What You Think
Update 6/14/2011 - Still holding about 10% of our S&P short position, strong resistance 1300-1320.
Update 6/15/2011 - Adding shorts, following S&P down trend after CPI report etc. It strikes us that the recent moves could be a sort of "managed" bear, and "targeting" trend followers and momemtum traders. Options expirations week too...
At the trend line...5/29/2011
S&P 500 had a high Friday just at the down trend line drawn from the high at 1370. We're still short, but on the alert for another right shoulder painting on the head & shoulders pattern with the left shoulder around 1340. No active PM trading positions, awaiting any fallout from options expirations last week.
Turn period dead ahead...5/22/2011
As noted on 5/10 - best guess, May 25-June 9, ideal date June 2 or 3... we'll see... currently very lightly short the S&P 500.
M3b is now growing at 2.8% per year, up from still shrinking in late March. Since late 2007, it has grown about 12%, while M2 has grown at about 21%. The primary reasons for the growth rate differences, per our work, is that two of the four differences between M2 and M3 (Jumbo CDs and Institutional money market mutual funds) have not grown at all and have actually shrunken by a few hundred billion.
Note also that both QE and the various Fed programs since 2007 like the TAF and PDCF are not counted in M3, per its definition.
Additionally, when M3 is added to total Z1 credit and total government debt etc., the annual growth rate becomes a much more real and expected 7.6%, up from about 2% in mid 2010.
Interesting factoids: The World's Biggest Police States
On the lighter side from the CDC - Preparedness 101: Zombie Apocalypse
Next turn point...5/10/2011
Best guess, May 25-June 9, ideal date June 2 or 3.
No strong opinions or signals (especially that haven't been covered by us over the years), although various emotional "excitability" cycles are on a large upward trend since early March.
BIG Bradley turn dead ahead, possible silver whipsaw this week...3/6/2011
20-25% correction possible from $37-38, too many weak hands etc.
Bradley 2011, fair warning - possible wild turn dead ahead.
Update 3/9/2011 - Truly excellent - Top Economists: Trust is Necessary for a Stable Economy … But Trust Won’t Be Restored Until We Prosecute Wall Street Fraud
Dimon, Pandit, Blankfein, Ackermann Join Kremlin Advisory Board
Milton Friedman - Greed
Trading Rules, Aphorisms & Books
Current picture of our U.S. crisis prediction work
Possible explosive week...2/20/2011
Silver on a rampage?... hi ho.... We expect a pause around 34.
Update 2/23/2011 - Yes, we're short the S&P... and as usual, watching the down trend for significant signals of a reversal. Kudos to Yves Lamoreaux too for calling it perfectly.
Update 2/25/2011 - Out of S&P shorts - a short ride, as expected.
Government and Private Unions Are Not the Same
2011 - the year of the ruthless
We have a light long USDX position from about 77.75, looking for the classic "flight to quality" reaction - initial target just under 80. Still watching the S&P for an entry point for a short ride. Options expirations week too.
Update 2/17/2011 - Trading Rules, Aphorisms & Books
In the zone...2/6/2011
We're in the date range of the next expected turn - between Feb. 7th and 19th, "ideal" date Feb 14th... don't be the last out the door when a break occurs in US stocks.
[Ben Bernanke]Quoting the economist Herbert Stein that “if something cannot go on forever, it will stop,” Bernanke said that the federal government must stabilize its budget. The question, he said, “is whether these adjustment will take place through a … process that weighs priorities and gives people adequate time to adjust to changes in government programs or tax policies, or whether [they] will be a rapid and painful response to a looming or actual fiscal crisis.”
IMF interactive infographic - sovereign debt
Update 2/8/2011 - 'Toxic' Assets Still Lurking at Banks
WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices
Update 2/11/2011 - For whatever reason or reasons, the Treasury's ESF is back to publishing weekly data again after about a 3 month gap. All missing weeks balances have been filled in.
Taking time off for outside issues, familial and otherwise.
Volunteering in 2010 (BLS) Update 2/3/2011 - Fibonacci, 75-76.4% level on the S&P 500 is between 1340 and 1360...
The Treasury is publishing ESF data again, charts updated later today.
Options expiration week...1/23/2011
In other news, Pollyanna and Bernays are alive and well... so far.
We're looking at a possible dollar long around 77.75... we'll see...
Update 1/26/2011 - Possible gold & silver turn between Feb. 7th and 19th, "ideal" date Feb 14th...
Although we're now outside the Dec 28th-Jan 7th turn target range, and precious metals did actually turn down during the period, we're torn about a nearby turn of the S&P 500 and its direction.
Wild variability of seasonal adjustments for U3 and U6 unemployment.
Next turn - ideal date, Jan. 4th with a range of Dec 28th-Jan 7th. And as usual, we'll let the market tell us which way it will go although we're biased towards the downside.
2011 prediction wise, we'll just stay with out successfull general 2010 one - unusually high volatility, and amount of "surprises".
Interesting: Fabian strategy
Best guess - during 2011, silver will have a peak above $45, gold above $1830.
Update 1/5/2011 - well, we got our S&P500 peak one day early on the 3rd... now we're just sitting and following the trend line. 10:13 AM PST, stopped out - even.
Big perspectives and thoughts
Major reasons for gold price changes, in no particular order:
This is not intended as a complete list but at least provides a framework within which to judge price action.
- Limits in supply, "peak cheap gold"
- Changes in demand (investment, jewelry, manufacturing, central bank etc.)
- Inflation direction & speed of change
- Real interest rate direction
- Fear - social, political, "financial system", peer pressure, safe haven
- Pain & Misery index (unemployment plus inflation rate)
- Changes in confidence of money or a given currency or the "financial system" (..."gold is simply the reciprocal of the world's faith in the institution of managed currencies. It is one divided by T, where T stands for trust." - James Grant, Barrons, Sept 2011)
- Manipulation/control/intervention by central banks and others
- Technical analysis factors
- High general volatility
Another take: Fundamental Drivers of the Gold Market
Some of the major ways the whole world wide economic and political issues could play out, in no particular order:
- Inflationary or hyperinflationary depression, aka very significant stagflation
- Deflationary depression
- Debt restructuring
- "Rescue" by the IMF, BIS & World Bank (or similar institutions) involving a new world currency etc.
- "Debt jubilee", partial or not, and including an all consumer government bailout in order to pay down debt.
- Wars of varying sizes, and not necessarily involving guns and shooting
- Large population decreases, due to disease, weather events, energy and/or food shortages, wars, or other Malthusian issues.
- "New World Order" - oligarchy, fascism, corporatism, kleptocracy, etc.
On the brighter side:
- Energy breakthroughs
- True leaders and statesmen emerge
- "Age of Aquarius" factors, in other words very unexpected positive changes - aka, "white swans"
And obviously, various combinations of the above.
"The Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustained recovery."
Prior years blogs