|Forecast & other charts always updated weekly, usually by 3PM PST
|...||moved change tracking & annoucements to the blogd|
|November 2007||New section on our false data page about the CRMPG.
The volatility component of the algorithm of our silver prediction has just been updated, and it has made quite a change in price expectations after mid December.
|October 2007||Added many seasonal charts to our miners page. Also added a long term money supply and inflation chart to the key stats page. Beginning to do some clean up on various charts too, like on the long term inflation page. We're dropping having two scales on one chart when possible, since it tends to be more confusing for some.|
|August 2007||We're now tracking the Fed's weekly discount window activities on our Fed watch page.|
|June 2007||Addendum made to our ECB gold price manipulation article, since there's a potential although unproven calculation issue.
We've added a "top" call to our gold prediction chart on the forecast page.
|May 2007||Added a new page covering precious metals stocks, miners and indexes here. New charts and relationships added every week.
ECB weekly gold stats finally updated.
|April 2007||Added an early warning line to the short term financial crisis chart here.
Added a new page covering precious metals stocks, miners and indexes here
|March 2007||Added a new 13 week rate of change chart for credit types on our key stats page and we're also putting a bit more attention into making timely blog entries. A recession probability chart has also been added to our forecast page.|
|February 2007||Added velocity charts to the Fed watch and central bank watch pages. Added chart for the central bank of India to the Central Bank watch page.|
|January 2007||A new article, Gold price manipulation proof|
|December 2006||Added a new intervention page to show various possibilities and probabilities, as well as the track history, of the main Fed short term or "hot money" tools. It's very "bare bones". Explanations and glossary links will be added as soon as realistically possible, but the glossary will help with the terms in the meantime.
Adjusted the algorithm on the Dow prediction since it had drifted way off due to timing, manipulation and volatility issues.
28th - Added the People's Bank of China to the central bank watch page.
Added two most of world GDP, money & credit charts to the key stats page and also cleaned up the G7 GDP & money charts on the same page.
|November 26-30, 2006||Added the Bank of England and the European Central Bank to the Central Banks watch page. The weekly track record of ECB gold buying & selling since 1999 is included via two links, and is quite "illuminating".|
|November 19, 2006||Now tracking the total of our M3 plus all credit, plus another set that tracks M3 plus total debt, on the key stats page. Its our first cut at showing "total U.S. money".
Also added a new page with a long term inflation pictures of houses, the Dow, corn and precious metals.
|November 12, 2006||Now tracking U.S. derivatives rate of change on the credit charts on the key stats page.|
|November 2, 2006||Adding a fuller picture of credit in the U.S. to the key stats page, and added a topping warning on the forecast page. Also added two charts that track the ESF to the Fed Watch page.|
|October 2006||Added a link to the very good American Bulls free stock trading site.|
|September 19, 2006||A new article added: Management or Manipulation: The TIO Story. A "daily" page has also been added to track TIOs.|
|Sept 1, 2006||New versions of the Dow, silver, gold and the dollar index are available on the forecast page. Hopefully the various new algorithms will be more accurate, and as usual - due your own due diligence.|
|August 18, 2006||Updated the International dollar value and trend chart and tightened up the correlation. It now has a predictive aspect for the US dollar index.|
|August 13, 2006||Finally found the time to update the "Real GDP" section on the forecast page, and the chart is much more accurate than our previous work. It seems to confirm our call for a mild recession starting in mid 2006.|
|July 30, 2006||Added two new charts to the Fed watch page, the first showing 'total' Fed operations, to give a large overview of what they're doing and have done. The second shows the existing main money measures and bank credit. A set of answers to the question "Why worry if you're not doing anything wrong?" has been added to the false data page.|
|July 5, 2006||Added two new charts to the forecast page for silver & gold. They show relative comparisons to previous bull markets over the last 30+ years.|
|July 1, 2006||Added a new page, Central Bank watch, which currently contains both short and long term charts for the Bank of Japan and COFER data from the IMF.|
|June 30, 2006||A new article on the connection between deficits and the dollar is here, and the US GDP and money chart on the key stats page now contains an early version of out G7 leading economic indicator.|
|May 28, 2006||Updated false data page with corrected data about Federal Reserve ownership and structure.|
|May 5-12, 2006||Significant improvement and explanations on the Fed Watch page.|
|April 23-28, 2006||Added a new page (Overview) containing key charts across markets, developed a substitute for M3 (see key stats page for "M3b"), added Seclend & bonds link on Fed watch page, other miscellanous tweaks. Added both a reconstruction of M3 (M3b) on the Key Stats but also a new article about M3b, repos and the general area of Fed watching.|
|April 10-15, 2006||Update to forecast page to adjust Fed Funds rate predictions. Update from 2005 to 2006 CIA factbook links & data. Added more explanation and clarifications on the key stats page.|
|Early April, 2006||A new bare bones "Fed Watch" page has been added for those who understand the area (fair warning, a significant economics background is required). A new US GDP & money creation chart has also been added to the Key stats page, and contains a GDP projection.|
|Late March, 2006||Update to forecast page for stock market warning. A major correction in the G7 GDP & money creation chart on our key stats page was done (it was backwards - our apologies), and the forecast has been reversed.|
|March, 2006||Added various additional graphs to the key stats page like global liquidity and a graph showing the correlation between the 10 year Treasury bond & the Nikkei 225 main Japanese stock index.|
|February 5, 2006||New page - Some key statistics as prediction aids|
|January 21, 2006||New page - Elements of and predictive monitor for a financial crisis.|
|January 18, 2006||New page - How much tax do we really pay?|
|January 3, 2006||Added combined graphs of Dow, S&P & Nasdaq relative performance to the stocks pages.
FAQ additions: "What are the worst four hyperinflations in the last 100 years?" and "What are some of the ways that governments disguise the true inflation rate?"
|December 30, 2005||Added a new tentative chart to predict/forecast the 10 year Treasury Bond interest rates here. Also isolated a previously incorrectly ignored factor, and added it to most forecast chart efforts.|
|December 15, 2005||Altered Fed Funds rate guess to 1/4% up (60%) from no change (75%) due to small change in inflation core rate, which is a major indicator for the Fed and Ben Bernanke.|
|November 14, 2005||Updated US & Argentina page with data about the slowdown at best since 2004 or earlier in the US economy|
|November 11, 2005||Added a note to the forecast page regarding the recent major data availability change at the Fed, which will cause most of the forecast graphs to run out of data in late 2006. COT data not available this week due to the holiday|
|October 23, 2005||Added a missing way in which money is created in the U.S. on the FAQ page.|
|October 13, 2005||Catching up on this page - minor updates to FAQ, False Data, Glossary, Weimar & Argentina pages have been made over the last two weeks. Added some hurricane links to the weather page. Wrapped up the real estate page since we're pretty sure the relative performamce top is in. Also changed the overall behavior of site for external links - unless its an Adobe Acrobat PDF file, clicking will not open a new window.|
|September 23, 2005||Changes have been made in most predictice charts on the forecast page to account for the unusual and unpredictable recent events (7/7 London bombings, Katrina, Rita), and any large future unexpected events will cause a rapid chart update.|
|September 22, 2005||Updated LEI data (down .2% in August) on forecast page, and modified Fed Funds prediction to add in the potential of 1/2% hike in November.|
|September 20, 2005||Changed Fed Funds rate prediction for the next meeting. Updated the real estate page with likely our last comment, since the housing bubble has been pierced in our opinion.|
|September 18, 2005||Added some health care price chart popups to the CPI page.|
|September 11, 2005||Added an additional line to the Dow chart on the forecast page to show how our mechanical predictions fail when major unexpected events like the 7/7 London bombings and Katrina occur.|
|Sept 5, 2005||New version/model of the Fear/Calm Index released. Large changes in various Fed data has caused significant changes in most of the predictions on the forecast page, it may be time for a model change if they continue tracking poorly, in spite of the unpredictable 7/7 London bombings and Katrina effects.|
|August 28, 2005||Added comments from Mr. Greenspan's speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on the real estate page. Added an article from the August 1929 "Ladies Home Journal" on the FAQ page, very interesting picture of the time right before the Great Depression.|
|August 21, 2005||Added a new page: German Weimar Republic in the early 1920s and the U.S. - Troubling similarities.The FAQ page now has a list of countries that have experienced hyperinflation since 1985. Oil demand forecast from Ed Yardeni available now in pop-up on forecast page.|
|August 16, 2005||Added a link on the links page to a good article on long term demographic trends.|
|August 10, 2005||Various charts added to weather page, links added to grains page.|
|August 7, 2005||"What nations have the most popular brands?", see FAQ page. Change in Fed Funds rate forecast. Added links on the real estate page to two articles questioning the supply demand figures.|
|August 1, 2005||Added a new page, "CPI rant". The Consumer Price Index, a big lie. Also added a tentative "Greed / Fear" Index to the forecast page|
|July 29, 2005||Real GDP chart & comments updated on forecast page. Added gold/silver valuation item on false data page.|
|July 25, 2005||Added a link to a chart of the Baltic Dry Index, a predictive aid, to the forecast page.|
|July 24, 2005||New US Drought charts on weather page. New comment on CPI calculation on FAQ page. News updated on real estate page.|
|July 21, 2005||Updated comments on LEI|