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New Signs of Deflation ?
Signs of deflation Cookiemonster 09/03/04
Did the price of hosing go down? What about food? Health c... Vangel Vesovski 09/03/04
tuition cost Shawn 09/04/04
I agree that calculating tuition is nearly impossible. I am... Kay4 09/14/04
Yeah, I am noticing that too. Maybe Mr. Russell is right ab... Chicagobear 09/03/04
both at the same time cherokee 09/03/04
China Finster 09/03/04
US slowdown? cherokee 09/03/04
So Finster 09/03/04
yes... cherokee 09/03/04
in the next year a mild deflation (due to china slowdown... Vangel Vesovski 09/03/04
Dollar Denominated Demand Finster 09/04/04
Next, consider that "demand" by itself is a nebulous conc... Vangel Vesovski 09/04/04
I Can't Miss My Own Point Finster 09/04/04
Currency units are the only relevant units for this purpo... Vangel Vesovski 09/04/04
A Simple Quiz Finster 09/04/04
In the first case you imply that China has to rely on the FR... Vangel Vesovski 09/05/04
Wrong Answer Finster 09/05/04
If the world needs 5 times more cement than producers were a... Vangel Vesovski 09/06/04
Your Example Proves My Point Finster 09/06/04
This is incorrect. Price is a ratio. The value of the thi... Vangel Vesovski 09/06/04
Determinants Of Prices Finster 09/08/04
OOPS.. Vangel Vesovski 09/08/04
Dig Deeper Finster 09/08/04
Uhhmmm... the thread is called "New Signs Of Deflation"??... Vangel Vesovski 09/09/04
Reply At Left Finster 09/09/04
a lot of commodity price action... cherokee 09/04/04
Fundamental Trend Finster 09/05/04
collateral.. cherokee 09/06/04
Present Deflationary Forces . The Reaper ! 09/03/04
But the global inventories for silver, copper, uranium, coal... Vangel Vesovski 09/03/04
Slowing down Ricardo Smith 09/04/04
Perhaps you are right but... Vangel Vesovski 09/04/04
Continuous demand for public works? Bud Wood 09/06/04
I said nothing about prosperity my friend, just that the Fed... Vangel Vesovski 09/06/04
WHAT'S IN YOUR WALLET? SHANE R MATLOCK 09/03/04
Local Food Prices for Vangel Cookiemonster 09/04/04
The ECRI Indicators are Clear on this Issue. Eleuthero 09/05/04
The Good Folks At ECRI Finster 09/05/04
Signs of Deflation Leslie 09/07/04
If house prices deflate, it won't be one moment too soon, th... m. 09/07/04
Real estate housing bubble sized Keith Cowan 09/08/04
I think UK house prices are worse than yours - hence our ban... m. 09/08/04
BWI to Ft. Meyers Florida.... Thye Usual Suspect 09/07/04
Timely arrival????????? len 09/09/04
You are going to be in for a rude awakening. According to Ri... Leslie 09/11/04
Reply To Vangel - Uhhmmm... Finster 09/09/04
Deflation found JB 09/09/04
As long as the peg is in effect, they're the same thing –... Vangel Vesovski 09/11/04
Toilet paper dollars Ricardo Smith 09/11/04
Why do you see the weakness of a peg of RMB to FRN's but don... DaveGillie 09/11/04
Dave Finster 09/11/04
If the FRN were pegged to a monetary commodity the Fed could... Vangel Vesovski 09/11/04
Giving Government Too Much Credit Finster 09/11/04
You argue that prices will rise due to a strong Chinese e... Vangel Vesovski 09/12/04
Of Pianos And Springs Finster 09/12/04
Occam's razor ... Vangel Vesovski 09/12/04
Pot, Kettle... Finster 09/13/04
EGG Price in China?? Thye Usual Suspect 09/13/04
You are talking about general inflation and on that we agree... Vangel Vesovski 09/14/04
Food & Water Finster 09/14/04
My problem with water is the politics that are involved. Fe... Vangel Vesovski 09/15/04
CRESY Finster 09/15/04
Food & Water play, albeit very indirect. DaveGillie 09/17/04
Water Indirect Finster 09/17/04
Dave, my screens (yahoo and harrisdirect) show no dividen... tbo 09/17/04
Political Economy Dan Osborne 09/15/04
Instinctive actions to Economic and Social changes. Lucius Foster 09/16/04
Interesting Dan Osborne 09/16/04

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Date: September 03, 2004 01:04 PM
Author: Cookiemonster
Subject: Signs of deflation

My favorite chain book store is having another two weeks of "Buy 4 Get the 5th book free". By my reckoning that is a 20% price cut.

Also heard on the radio today that gasoline prices have dropped a nickel in this area. Going into a big holiday like Labor Day that is unprecedented.

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=183239)





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Date: September 03, 2004 01:54 PM
Author: Chicagobear

Yeah, I am noticing that too. Maybe Mr. Russell is right about the deflation overwhelming the efforts of the Fedgov to inflate. I still won't buy long-term dollar bonds though. I guess I'm just stubborn that way. Give me money market and bullion.

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=183259)


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Date: September 03, 2004 02:04 PM
Author: cherokee
Subject: both at the same time

... rising commodity prices (china wants them too!)

falling local prices due to competition.

for now consumption is financed by banks on your land as collateral.

dismal job market. falling value of labour.

end result : falling living standards (not there yet, but should start to see noticeable declines in a couple of years).

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=183267)































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Date: September 03, 2004 11:53 PM
Author: SHANE R MATLOCK
Subject: WHAT'S IN YOUR WALLET?

NOT MUCH CASH & A LOT OF CREDIT CARD'S ? Then you my friend are on the short end of the stick! So many people with little to no savings what so ever, it's a disaster waiting to happen. Most folks are just a layoff or illness away from the poor house, what about you?

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=183457)



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Date: September 05, 2004 03:51 AM
Author: Eleuthero
Subject: The ECRI Indicators are Clear on this Issue.

Growth is slowing dramatically AND inflation is building. Yes, they are not God but their forecasting record is virtually 100% over the last five years.

Vangel's ideas about cement, iron, etc. to me are IRREFUTABLE. There are too many people on earth and half of them are SCREAMING towards first world infrastructures.

I think the die is cast. The Mother of All Stagflations.

E.

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=183791)



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Date: September 07, 2004 07:24 PM
Author: Leslie
Subject: Signs of Deflation

Cliff Robertson, Oscar winning actor and neighbor in La Jolla, owns a very unique 7-Bedroom beautiful estate on 1.4 acres of pristine ocean property with rolling lawns down to the shore (very rare up and down the Pacific coast) which he purchased in the 1960's. It's been listed on the market for $25 M for at least the past few years, maybe even longer. Just recently, it's been reduced to a steal @ $19 M!

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=184602)








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Date: September 09, 2004 08:14 PM
Author: Finster
Subject: Reply To Vangel - Uhhmmm...

    They give the producers some RMB. This would mean that they have less use for FRNs, which they will sell to reduce their exposure. The added FRNs would put pressures on American prices in an upward direction.

It doesn't matter whether it's USD or RMB. As long as the peg is in effect, they're the same thing – the RMB is a fraction of a dollar, just like a dime or quarter.

    But you are not giving evidence of a contraction of money or credit so why are you saying that prices are falling because of it?

I'm just saying that aggregate physical demand is irrelevant. I wasn't so much giving a pro-deflation argument as refuting your Keynesian argument that rising prices are due to a strong economy.

As for contracting credit, one needn't cite evidence of it in order to warn of it. Imagine a grand piano sitting on the sidewalk. You are standing next to it. If I were to warn you that it might be about to fall on your head, you would say I was crazy. And you'd be justified. But suppose someone with a crane began to hoist it up. I warn you that it might be about to fall on your head. You say I'm crazy, the piano is going up, not down. This time you would not be justified.

As someone with an engineering background, you presumably appreciate the physics analogy here. The piano may be moving up, but in doing so it is acquiring potential energy. If permitted to seek its natural level, this potential energy would be converted into kinetic energy, and thus pose a grave threat to your head. A similar thing can happen in the world of economics. By expanding credit beyond its natural level, the Fed is imparting potential energy. It is raising the height of credit beyond its equilibrium value. In doing so, it works against a restoring force. To switch metaphors, it is compressing a spring. The inflation represents the compression of the spring, and the spring exerts a restoring force of deflation.

The difference between our points of view is simple. You say I am silly because the piano is going up, the spring is being compressed, while in those movements I see an ever increasing potential for the piano to go down, for the spring to expand. You are looking at the past, I am looking at the future.

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=185238)





















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Date: September 15, 2004 10:45 PM
Author: Dan Osborne
Subject: Political Economy

Personally I think wages will go down world wide and the amount of currency in circulation will go up.

How? by easy credit more and more money will be used in speculation, such as real estate.

Even though the amount of currency in a economic system is important for price inflation. Where that currency lives is also very important. For instance if that currency is just ate up by inflation in the housing sector and monopoly in the insurance sector. Then these and other sectors could "soak" up the inflation while deflation could exist in other sectors, at least in the short term.

The stock market game depends on increasing money supply pumping more money into the market faster than inflation in other sectors. This indicates to me that the stock market depends on new money going into it's system faster than in the economy. If not what does this mean?

Dan

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=187009)



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Date: September 16, 2004 05:57 PM
Author: Dan Osborne
Subject: Interesting

Instincts, first I guess you assume that any who want money are crooks, those in the business are crooks. So charts, graphs, offical buy signals are things to question. One thing DR and others may miss is that the big guys guide the market and enough lumps go ahead and buy, well then the paper inflates. The power of positive thinking and nothing else to do with money and of course a dose of need and greed such as for the old lady with too little pension. This tends to pump things up and up beyond reason.

You point out money supply is the reason for inflation and so it is true. This last post shows your hound dog approach of finding what to do, nose on the ground sniffing. A interesting difference.

I myself, always, continue to wonder what the truth is the media seems to lie at every broadcast. Miss truths half truths outright lies, bending of history. So to call the fall of a empire due to anything but a exhausting of resources may be another lie. The victor always write history, but I tend to trust historians more than most, the guys who obtain little qoutes for daily R consumption have a agenda.

What I would like to do is go to ground and look all over the place, for other purposes than investing.

To trust your instincts in a micro enviroment is hard. To trust the over all information by most sources shouldn't be trusted. What is your take on the DR investing groups that you have to pay for?

Personally from what I know of history the elites will get their way for some time before revolution starts. But the elites are no doubt divided and diverging directions are always present.

My nose on the ground tells me that the people of the USA still have no clue and in general will go to third world status, with some kicks and a screem but they will go. After they slip toward a 4th world status the intellectual change will be interesting-globally. Of course some of this depends how much smoke and mirrors by the elites is done and bought by people.

Dan

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=187291)