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A Day Of Deflation
A Day Of Deflation Finster 08/11/04
Finster & Deflation The Reaper ! 08/11/04
Cash Finster 08/11/04
Finster & CASH The Reaper ! 08/11/04
Reaper.......a man with a different View! slopro 08/11/04
Inside the fence,,or behind bars? Thye Usual Suspect 08/11/04
Hot Checks? Finster 08/12/04
Stay fast on your feet and the race can be run on a wet track Lucius Foster 08/11/04
"You have to research hard times you will be amazed at what ... richard 08/13/04
If you want to see true deflation you should look to the era... Vangel Vesovski 08/11/04
So why do you want to live in a world of DEFLATION?? DaveGillie 08/11/04
Because a market driven deflation that comes about because o... Vangel Vesovski 08/12/04
Deflation Does Not Require Commodity Money Finster 08/12/04
The future is Argentina, not Japan... Vangel Vesovski 08/12/04
Neutraflation Finster 08/12/04
But you need to drive and eat while you can always move to s... Vangel Vesovski 08/13/04
Middling Muddle Through Finster 08/13/04
You are continuing to propose that we have the banks and gov... Vangel Vesovski 08/13/04
As It Is Or As It Should Be? Finster 08/13/04
two of the three, sequentially. the second first, followed b... SirEdward 08/14/04
From prudent bear chat JB 08/14/04
Pointy Headed Nerds Finster 08/14/04
The point is... JB 08/14/04
Nothing Personal Finster 08/14/04
Consider that if the central bank creates money by lendin... Vangel Vesovski 08/14/04
Vangel & The Japanese saver ? The Reaper ! 08/14/04
Great Question, Reaper! Finster 08/14/04
Gooolly, surprise, surprise JB 08/14/04
Yes, I have looked into this and suggest that you also do so... Vangel Vesovski 08/16/04
Debt And Deflation Finster 08/16/04
This is easily understood by considering the fact that J... Vangel Vesovski 08/17/04
Fiat Deflation Finster 08/17/04
Never before has the world's dominant economic power live... Vangel Vesovski 08/18/04
None taken JB 08/14/04
Honest Money Finster 08/15/04
Honest Society Finster 08/15/04
duplicate... Vangel Vesovski 08/12/04
Are we being EXTREME again Vangle? DaveGillie 08/11/04
You know as well as I do that in a primary bear market you w... Vangel Vesovski 08/12/04
The price of oil in dollars........ m. 08/12/04
deflation: your world view if holding USD voted with my feet 08/11/04
about to vote with my feet and wallet too... cherokee 08/11/04
housing len 08/11/04
Len, very possibly a continuation of this. One scenario - un... SirEdward 08/11/04
UK Housing Chris Manougian 08/12/04
deflation in Real Estate. Looking at the past. Lucius Foster 08/12/04
since money is just a banker's fiction... cherokee 08/13/04
Pardon me amigos...I don't pretend to be a economist...what ... Commandante Pachuco 08/12/04
Commondante may I suggest you hold the following item. Lucius Foster 08/12/04
when the lenders decide they've lent enough as their risk in... SirEdward 08/12/04
My deepest sympathy. Check the Ex or Ex means check. Lucius Foster 08/14/04
Chris, not yet. i'm waiting for some figures that won't be r... SirEdward 08/13/04
With an Eye on the U.S. Chris Manougian 08/14/04
Today's PPI info was very benign (which I am having a tou... Vangel Vesovski 08/14/04
VLO JB 08/14/04
Shorting Oil Chris Manougian 08/15/04
Other Links JB 08/15/04
Vangel LOOK again ! The Reaper ! 08/16/04
unwise predictions marm 08/17/04
japan's easy fix... cherokee 08/17/04
I never said that Japan was doing great, only that the US is... Vangel Vesovski 08/17/04
Vangel ,Japan & Botswana The Reaper ! 08/17/04
Japan's "Support" Chris Manougian 08/17/04
We blame Greenspan because.... JB 08/17/04
It's easy that way, isn't it? Chris Manougian 08/17/04
What would I have done? JB 08/17/04
JB, I wouldn't take that job if you gave me Vesovski's stack... Chris Manougian 08/18/04
Hypertiger's charts JB 08/18/04
Dollar Down? Finster 08/11/04
stability the hobbit 08/12/04

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Date: August 11, 2004 10:30 AM
Author: Finster
Subject: A Day Of Deflation

Ever wonder what deflation would look like? Nothing mysterious about it. Just look at today. Dow down. Nasdaq down. NYSE down. Realty down. FTSE down. Eurozone down. Gold down. Oil down. Bonds down. Silver down.

What do all these prices have in common? They're denominated in dollars. If you were to price dollars in stocks instead of the other way around, you'd see that the stock price of dollars is up. The gold price of dollars is up. Dollars up.

If deflation is the next trend, days like today would be common.

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=175059)









































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Date: August 11, 2004 01:01 PM
Author: voted with my feet
Subject: deflation: your world view if holding USD

hope your cash is in a foreign currency.

looks more and more like people want out of the dollar and dollar denominated assets. Japan saw property and equities drown for more than a decade but other parts of the world(and other parts of Asia) eventually de-coupled and got on with the business of growth and living. Twin deficits, huge debt, trade deficit.... many markets presently correlate witht the S&P but that won't last forever. And if the slowdown becomes too severe then maybe the competitive currency devaluations that have been the norm for the past several years will stop and energy will be cheaper for those countries who revalue. It will be in their interest to do so, exporting to Americans buying TVs won't be so high on their marginal benfit curve. Nope, the dollar is looking more and more hopeless. Deflation/inflation will mean different things in different places.

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=175108)








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Date: August 12, 2004 12:01 AM
Author: Commandante Pachuco

Pardon me amigos...I don't pretend to be a economist...what is cash but a FRN. Is this what is good to hold? Hard to believe.

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=175364)





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Date: August 13, 2004 11:52 AM
Author: SirEdward

Chris, not yet. i'm waiting for some figures that won't be released till mid November. plotted a chart of UK house sale volume from 1995, awkward to extract. it's approaching the bottom end of its upchannel. if it breaks out.... fundamentals look ok too. don't trust oil, too much politics but i have no doubt that will crash likewise, latest bubble. 4 more BoE MPC decisions till end of 04. when it crashes it will probably be in decline for several years.

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=175914)







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Date: August 16, 2004 08:51 PM
Author: The Reaper !
Subject: Vangel LOOK again !

What ? "claims that you cannot support" ...are you kidding me ? Japan is a basket case , they have more debt than any country on the frickin planet . A whopping 10 trillion dollars in wealth has evaporated from their deflation alone since 1992 . Corporate balance sheets are burdened with debt levels that run at four times equity, compared with 1.5 times in the U.S. . Mitsubishi Motors alone has $15 billion in debt, four times its equity. There has been a 70% meltdown in property prices , The aggregate debt of bankrupt companies, is higher than the U.S. had during the Great Depression. Japan is in the worst debt trap that any country in the history of mankind has ever seen . Some say that their hidden , off balance sheet debt actually dwarfs their admitted debt . When asked why all of the debt is hidden , a Japanese finance minister replied , "we in the government don't want to upset the people" ! Imagine, if you can, an economic Hell in which the U.S. government was borrowing 40% of its annual budget, creating annual deficits of 900 billion dollars a year; where 65% of all tax revenues were gobbled up by interest payments on a mind-boggling $13 trillion public debt; and where there was no conductor in sight to stop this runaway debt train , welcome to Japan, where that Hell is reality. Dude , wake up and smell the coffee ! The Reaper !

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=177040)






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Date: August 17, 2004 08:50 PM
Author: Chris Manougian
Subject: Japan's "Support"

It's occurred to me that much of the problem that the global economy finds itself in now has been Japan's eagerness to "support" the USD. Make no mistake about it; Japan has not done this out of kindness. They have done it to support their industry – their industrial "policy".

Much of the blame for "synthetic" credit demand belongs to the major global economic powers that manipulate the fair value of their currencies in their ongoing (trade war) efforts to bolster there own ("synthetic") comparative advantage.

We can all blame Greenspan – calling him names like, "Serial Bubble Blower". But considering what he has to deal with – a government that can't stop blowing money, and what he's had to deal with – the devastating economic affects of 9/11, he's done the best that he could do. Funny, now that Greenspan is actually raising rates, he's being taken to task for "his timing". Just lovely. I can't believe the number of pundits that are now saying, "the wrong way; you're going the wrong way!" Even Steve Roach hopped on board this week to insinuate the same. Ridiculous. What fantasy dream world called "Perfect" do these people live in?

Maybe if Japan (and now China) didn't "support" the Dollar, natural economics would have begun to correct global trade imbalances long ago. Maybe we wouldn't find ourselves in the mess that we are in. There's plenty of blame to go around.

But even top-flight US economists don't want to talk about currency manipulation – that would kill their contacts and ties overseas. No, it's much, much, easier to criticize the US – no penalty for that. It's easy, and it's in vogue.

I really wish someone would tally up the damage done by the currency manipulations. I wonder if it's even possible. The yen should have appreciated a long, long, time ago.

But that's not the world we live in. We live in a "synthetic" global economy that is well disguised as "free". When we look back in a few years (if we can look back as rational human beings), I bet we're going to ask ourselves how we allowed it all to happen.

One thing I know is this: currency manipulation is corrupt economics. Period. Speaking figuratively, if you're not willing to stand on top of your soapbox and scream that, remaining criticisms are shallow.

But then again, maybe the US really likes the way it has all worked out. Even though we have gutted our own industry, inflation has been (synthetically) low! Actually, come to think of it, we have no one to blame but ourselves.

With the trade deficit numbers that have just come in, I wonder if we start to see our chickens coming home to roost in earnest. And then, I wonder if we see the politicians begin to make noise again – because that's all they really ever do. And then, of course, we'll get all of the "free trade" idiots to push for more of the status quo.

I also wonder how Japan's chronic synthetic devaluation of the yen has hurt Japan? How is China's peg hurting China? Don't ask any of the big-time economists. They're too busy shitting all over Greenspan.

Every day I get a little more out of vogue. Every day I become a little more anti-"Free Trade". Every day I like Pat Buchanan a little more than the day before.

(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=177363)