Precious metal and other miners


All indexes All indexes, annual change rates Gold, BGMI, Dow, etc. - 1970-1982 Gold, BGMI, HUI, XAU seasonals Gold & miner index ratios Junior miner performance Yield curve & the BGMI Yield curve & the metals indexes
(BGMI = Barron's Gold Mining Index)



Gold, S&P 500, XAU, HUI & BGMI - annual change rates



Full BGMI charts are also available from ShareLynx here.


Same as above, but longer term



BGMI data sourced from .
Full BGMI charts are available from ShareLynx here.




Gold, S&P 500, XAU, HUI & BGMI





Same as above, but longer term







The yield curve, gold and the BGMI

Note that the yield curve right hand scale is inverted!

The point of these yield curve charts is simple. Mining shares strongly tend to out perform when the yield curve is going more positive (black line going lower on the two charts below).





Same as above, but long term







The yield curve, gold & the XAU, HUI & BGMI



The point of these yield curve charts is simple. Mining shares strongly tend to out perform when the yield curve is going more positive.





Same as above, but long term







Gold, BGMI, Dow - 1970-1982



Same as above, but adding in the dollar & yield curve (with scaling)







Gold, BGMI, HUI, XAU seasonal patterns - during bull markets and not

Calculations done based on changes since the beginning of each year, then averaged.









The Dow and S&P 500, for reference







Gold & it's ratio to the 3 miner indexes


Short term



Long term



Long term



Short term






Junior miner performance



Per the Financial Sense Junior Indexes 2006 review (2007 results here), there are 4 main classifications of junior miners - Overall, Producers, Development and Exploration. Based on the relationships since 2002, the juniors have outperformed the BGMI by about 3-3.5 times and the HUI by about 2-2.5 times (see 2002-6 data below to see how those multipliers are derived).

Transferring that performance back to the BGMI's 1970's bull market data and using the January 1980 high as the high point (the Dow/gold ratio high) and January 1970 as the start, and using London prices:


Using the January 1980 high as the high point (the Dow/gold ratio high) and January 1966 as the start (the Dow/gold ratio low), and using London prices:


For another parallel - using the partial bull market high in late 1974 as the high point and January 1966 as the start (the Dow/gold ratio low), and using London prices:



2002-2007 performance

Overall HUI BGMI XAU Gold Silver
1086.3%  569.1%  362.9%  175.6%  169.1%  243.0%


One year performance

Year Overall Producers Development Exploration HUI BGMI XAU Gold Silver
2006  45.1%  41.2%   7.4% 118.5%  22.1%  16.5%  10.4%  24.6%  46.1%
2007  1.38%  6.76%   -22.94% 29.07%  40.48%  35.72%  36.06%  30.97%  14.66%


There are many ways to compare junior miners and calculate how they will or won't out perform other miners, and we have only shown one "best effort" example.
We also have excluded any very significant additional returns should one have used any leverage on the physical gold or silver markets, such as is available with futures or options, etc.

Finally, note that junior miners and precious metals and metals stocks in general are amongst the highest risk stocks available. Do your own due diligence and please read our disclaimer below!

Caveat emptor (let the buyer beware) - How to (still) get rich in mining.



Other juniors indexes and proxies

Financial Sense Junior Gold Index
Financial Sense Junior Gold Index Archive

Canadian Venture Composite Index (CDNX)

S&P/TSX Capped Diversified Metals and Mining Index

Gold Colony (no charts)

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